A service line can look fully staffed while carrying a significant succession risk.
A senior physician may anticipate retirement. Another may want fewer clinical hours. A third may hold relationships or procedural expertise that will take time to replace.
These possibilities belong in the workforce plan before a resignation arrives.
The AAMC's physician workforce projections published in 2024 incorporated physician work hours and retirement trends, alongside other supply and demand factors. Its scenarios projected a national shortage of up to 86,000 physicians by 2036. That is a scenario-based national projection, not a forecast for any individual hospital or community. Read the AAMC report announcement.
ClearHire's recommendation is to translate the broader workforce discussion into local decisions.
Begin with three questions:
Where is the organization dependent on an individual?
Examine specialty coverage, leadership responsibilities, referral relationships, and services with limited backup.
What changes do current physicians anticipate?
Invite voluntary conversations about future workload, leadership interests, and transition plans. Avoid assuming someone's intentions based on age.
What must be ready before a replacement arrives?
Consider recruitment lead time, onboarding capacity, clinical support, and whether an overlap period would help transfer responsibilities.
An approved position is only one part of the plan. Leadership also needs a timeline, an accountable owner, and a practical response if the transition happens sooner than expected.
ClearHire's enterprise recruitment and consultative assessment capabilities support this broader view of workforce needs.
The right time to understand a succession gap is while you still have choices.
